Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation

T. Houet (1) , C. Marchadier , G. Bretagne , P. Moine (2) , Rahim Aguejdad (3) , Vincent Viguie (4) , M. Bonhomme , A. Lemonsu , P. Avner (4) , Julia Hidalgo (5) , V. Masson (6)

1 GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement
2 Adixen
3 UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
4 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
5 LISST - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Solidarités, Sociétés, Territoires
6 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques

Although climate scientists explore the effects of climate change for 2100, it is a challenging time frame for urban modellers to foresee the future of cities. The question addressed in this paper is how to improve the existing methodologies in order to build scenarios to explore urban climate impacts in the long term and at a fine scale. This study provides a structural framework in six steps that combines narratives and model-based approaches. The results present seven scenarios of urban growth based on land use strategies and technological and socio-economic trends. These contrasted scenarios span the largest possible world of futures for the city under study. Urban maps for 2010, 2040 and 2100 were used to assess the impacts on the Urban Heat Island. The comparison of these scenarios and related outputs allowed some levers to be evaluated for their capacity to limit the increase of air temperature.

Mots clés: Urban growth; Future; Urban heat island; Urban governance; Interdisciplinary

Domaines: Environnement et Société; Economies et finances

T. Houet, C. Marchadier, G. Bretagne, P. Moine, Rahim Aguejdad, et al.. Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2016, 86, pp.1-13. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.010⟩. ⟨hal-01695084⟩