Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach

Abstract : Macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings. Standard micro-founded macro-economic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks. In this paper, we develop a fully decentralized and micro-founded macro-economic agent-based model, augmented with an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms' leverage and households' precautionary saving behaviour. A major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macro-economic regimes. The model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro-and micro empirical regularities. Within this framework, we analyse a series of macro-economic phenomena of key relevance in the current macro-economic debate, especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and Fisherian debt-deflation recessions. Our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflation-ary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession, and the chances of recovery.
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Pascal Seppecher, Isabelle Salle. Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach. 3rd International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Apr 2014, Paris, France. ⟨hal-01110642v2⟩



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