Regulation of vole populations by the nematode Trichuris arvicolae: insights from modelling
Résumé
The goal of this study is to determine whether a parasitic nematode may regulate, or destabilise by inducing demographic cycles, its host populations. We explore three host-parasite systems through population dynamic models. The hosts considered are the fossorial water vole, Arvicola terrestris, the common vole Microtus arvalis and the bank vole Myodes (Clethrionomys) glareolus and the parasitic nematode is Trichuris arvicolae. Three differential equation-based mathematical models are developed including host immunity and the existence of trade-off between immunity and host survival. Using parameters estimated from field data and laboratory observations, all these models show that T. arvicolae can induce host population regulation but not demographic cycles. The regulation effect of the nematode is un-ambiguous for the water vole (reduction of 50.2% of the host population size), but less obvious for the common vole (5.9%) and even less for the bank vole (1.4%). Important biological parameters to be taken into account in such models are discussed. Experimental confirmation of the regulatory potential of the nematode and of the costs of mounting an immune response against this nematode are now required.