Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes
Résumé
Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low-dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate-and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stick-slip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations (< 1/oo) in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.
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