Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices: Evidence from Econophysics approach.

Cheima Gharib (1) , Salma Mefteh-Wali (2) , Vanessa Serret (3) , Sami Ben Jabeur (4, 5)

1 LIEC - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux
2 ESSCA - Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Commerciales d'Angers
3 CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises
4 ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy
5 UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598)

This paper provides an analysis of crude oil, diesel, and gasoline prices for the period from November 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020. We apply Log Periodic Power-Law Singularity (LPPLS) and Discrete Scale LPPLS bubble indicators to explore the dynamic bubbles of oil prices and predict their crash times. The results indicate that West Texas Light crude oil and North Sea Brent crude oil experienced a statistically significant negative financial bubble during the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, gasoline and diesel prices are mainly driven by fundamentals. Our findings are expected to be useful to oil market investors, policymakers, and energy experts.

Domaines: Economies et finances; Gestion et management

Cheima Gharib, Salma Mefteh-Wali, Vanessa Serret, Sami Ben Jabeur. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices: Evidence from Econophysics approach.. Resources Policy, 2021, 74, pp.102392. ⟨10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102392⟩. ⟨hal-03375164⟩