Scrutinizing the spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar

Stephan Narison (1) , Stavros Maltezos

1 LUPM - Laboratoire Univers et Particules de Montpellier

We scrutinize the evolution of COVID-19 in Madagascar by comparing results from three approaches (cubic polynomial, semi-gaussian and gaussian-like models) which we use to provide an analytical form of the spread of the pandemic. In so doing, we introduce (for the first time) the ratio Rc,d I/T of the cumulative and daily numbers of infected persons over the corresponding one of tests which are expected to be less sensitive to the number of the tests because the credibility of the results based only on the absolute numbers often raises some criticisms. We also give and compare the effective reproduction number Reff from different approaches and with the ones of some European countries with a small number of population (Greece, Switzerland) and some other African countries. Finally, we show and comment the evolution of the total number of deaths and of the per cent number of cured persons and discuss the performance of the medical care.

Domaines: Physique [physics]

Stephan Narison, Stavros Maltezos. Scrutinizing the spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 2021, 87, pp.104668. ⟨10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104668⟩. ⟨hal-03143582⟩