Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops

Andrea Toreti (1) , Delphine Deryng (2, 3, 4) , Francesco Tubiello (5) , Christoph Müller (6) , Bruce Kimball (7) , Gerald Moser (8) , Kenneth Boote (9) , Senthold Asseng (9) , Thomas A.M. Pugh (10, 11) , Eline Vanuytrecht (12, 13) , Håkan Pleijel (14) , Heidi Webber (4) , Jean-Louis Durand (15) , Frank Dentener (1) , Andrej Ceglar (1) , Xuhui Wang (16, 17) , Franz Badeck (18) , Remi Lecerf (1) , Gerard W. Wall (7) , Maurits van den Berg (1) , Petra Hoegy (19) , Raul Lopez-Lozano (20) , Matteo Zampieri (1) , Stefano Galmarini (1) , Garry J. O’leary (21) , Remy Manderscheid (22) , Erik Mencos Contreras (23, 24) , Cynthia Rosenzweig (23, 24)

1 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
2 NewClimate Institute
3 IRI THESys
4 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
5 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie]
6 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
7 USDA - USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ]
8 JLU - Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University
9 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
10 University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
11 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
12 VITO - Flemish Institute for Technological Research
13 KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
14 GU - Göteborgs Universitet = University of Gothenburg
15 P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères
16 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
17 Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
18 CREA - Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics
19 University of Hohenheim
20 EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
21 AgriBio - Agriculture Victoria
22 Thünen Institute of Biodiversity
23 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
24 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality. Understanding of the effects of elevated CO2 on crops has improved sufficiently that modelling future climatic effects on agriculture should eliminate 'no CO2' simulations. Further advancement in the estimation of the effects can be realized by studying a wider variety of crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improving the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models and simulating additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

Domaines: Océan, Atmosphère; Interfaces continentales, environnement

Andrea Toreti, Delphine Deryng, Francesco Tubiello, Christoph Müller, Bruce Kimball, et al.. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops. Nature Food, 2020, 1 (12), pp.775-782. ⟨10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4⟩. ⟨hal-03093673⟩