Analogies between SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and batch chemical reactor behavior

Flavio Manenti (1) , A. Galeazzi (1) , F. Bisotti (1) , K. Prifti (1) , A. Dell'Angelo (1) , Alessandro Di Pretoro (1, 2) , C. Ariatti (1)

1 POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan]
2 LGC - Laboratoire de Génie Chimique

The pandemic infection of SARS-CoV-2 presents analogies with the behavior of chemical reactors.Susceptible population (A), active infected population (B), recovered cases (C) and deaths (D) can beassumed to be molecules of chemical compounds and their dynamics seem well aligned with those ofcomposition and conversions in chemical syntheses. Thanks to these analogies, it is possible to generatepandemic predictive models based on chemical and physical considerations and regress their kineticparameters, either globally or locally, to predict the peak time, entity and end of the infection with certainreliability. These predictions can strongly support the emergency plans decision making process. Themodel predictions have been validated with data from Chinese provinces that already underwent com-plete infection dynamics. For all the other countries, the evolution is re-regressed and re-predicted everyday, updating a pandemic prediction database on Politecnico di Milano’s webpage based on the real-timeavailable data.

Mots clés: SARS-CoV-2; Infection dynamics; Batch chemical reactor; Predictive model; Non-linear regression; Pandemic mathematical model

Domaines: Génie chimique

Flavio Manenti, A. Galeazzi, F. Bisotti, K. Prifti, A. Dell'Angelo, et al.. Analogies between SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and batch chemical reactor behavior. Chemical Engineering Science, 2020, 227, pp.115918. ⟨10.1016/j.ces.2020.115918⟩. ⟨hal-03081865⟩