Accounting for symptomatic and asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19

Jayrold P. Arcede , Randy L. Caga-Anan , Cheryl Q. Mentuda (1) , Youcef Mammeri (1)

1 LAMFA - Laboratoire Amiénois de Mathématique Fondamentale et Appliquée - UMR CNRS 7352

A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from several countries like France, Philippines, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, China, and the USA. First, we derived the basic reproduction number, R0, and estimated the effective reproduction Reff for each country. Second, we were interested in the merits of interventions, either by distancing or by treatment. Results revealed that total and partial containment is effective in reducing the transmission. However, its duration may be long to eradicate the disease (104 days for France). By setting the end of containment as the day when hospital capacity is reached, numerical simulations showed that the duration can be reduced (up to only 39 days for France if the capacity is 1000 patients). Further, results pointed out that the effective reproduction number remains large after containment. Therefore, testing and isolation are necessary to stop the disease.

Mots clés: COVID-19; SEIsIaUR Model; reproduction number; interventions

Domaines: Mathématiques [math]

Jayrold P. Arcede, Randy L. Caga-Anan, Cheryl Q. Mentuda, Youcef Mammeri. Accounting for symptomatic and asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 2020, 15, pp.34. ⟨10.1051/mmnp/2020021⟩. ⟨hal-02904005⟩