A Statistical Method for Quantifying the Field Effects of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Techniques

Sophie Parison (1) , Martin Hendel (1) , Laurent Royon (2)

1 LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain
2 MSC - Matière et Systèmes Complexes

The Lowry approach (1977) sets the framework for evaluating the meteorological effects of the urban heat island (UHI), by describing it as the superposition of "background", "local" and "urban" climates. In this paper, by adapting this framework to the study of UHI countermeasures, we propose a statistical method suited for assessing their effects in the field. The framework demonstrates that direct comparisons between case and control sites cannot isolate the impacts of UHI countermeasure. It also shows that the interstation differences before and after countermeasure implementation cannot be considered as statistically independent. Consequently, statistical procedures suited for handling dependent observations are necessary such as a linear mixed or fixed effects model. As a case study, experimental data from pavement-watering experiments conducted in Paris since 2013 are used, with the goal of assessing its cooling effects for two different watering strategies. With the fixed effects model, long-lasting statistically-significant effects are found. Results indicate beneficial thermal effects for pedestrians with reductions of UTCI-equivalent temperature up to 2°C, and duration of statistically-significant effects directly linked to the watered surface area. The method is limited by the number of measurements that must be gathered both before and after the UHI countermeasure implementation.

Mots clés: UHI countermeasure; pavement-watering; climate change adaptation; linear mixed model; Before-After- Control-Impact (BACI) design

Domaines: Physique [physics]; Analyse de données, Statistiques et Probabilités [physics.data-an]; Climatologie

Sophie Parison, Martin Hendel, Laurent Royon. A Statistical Method for Quantifying the Field Effects of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Techniques. Urban Climate, inPress. ⟨hal-02785948⟩