Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

Abstract : We consider here an extended $SIR$ model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [77 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02572966
Contributor : Viet Chi Tran <>
Submitted on : Thursday, May 21, 2020 - 3:04:02 PM
Last modification on : Monday, March 22, 2021 - 2:46:56 PM

File

Control_Epidemics.pdf
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

Citation

Arthur Charpentier, Romuald Elie, Mathieu Laurière, Viet-Chi Tran. COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, EDP Sciences, 2020, Coronavirus: Scientific insights and societal aspects, 15, pp.57. ⟨10.1051/mmnp/2020045⟩. ⟨hal-02572966v2⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

348

Files downloads

377