Exports vs. Investment: How Public Discourse Shapes Support for External Imbalances *
Résumé
The economic imbalances that characterize the world economy have unequally distributed costs and benefits. This raises the question how countries could run long-term external surpluses and deficits without significant opposition against the policies that generate them. We show that economic ideas, and their emphasis in the public discourse , help to secure mass political support for these policies and the resulting economic outcomes. First, a content analysis of 32,000 newspaper articles finds that the dominant interpretations of economic outcomes in Australia and Germany concur with very distinct perspectives: external surpluses are seen as evidence of competitiveness in Germany, while external deficits are interpreted as evidence of attractiveness for investments in Australia. Second, survey experiments in both countries suggest that exposure to these diverging interpretations has a causal effect on citizens' support for their country's economic strategy. Economic ideas, thus, are crucial to provide the societal foundation of national growth strategies.
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