Assembling and testing a generic phenological model to predict Lobesia botrana voltinism for impact studies.
Résumé
The physiological development of insect pests is driven by temperature and photoperiod. Geographic variations in the speed of growth reflect current patterns in thermal conditions as a function of latitude and altitude. Global warming will likely lead to shifts in pests’ phenology. Insects are expected to overwinter earlier and develop more generations, with implications for the risks of damage to agricultural crops. Understanding and monitoring of the voltinism of insect pests will be increasingly important to anticipate critical phases of pest development and devise options for adapting pest control measures. In this study, we describe a new generic phenological model that allows to reproduce the voltinism of Lobesia botrana, a major insect pest that affect grapevine production (Vitis vinifera L.) worldwide.
Inspired by existing models, the Lobesia Generic Model (LGM) combines two submodels representing the overwintering period and the dates of flight of subsequent generations of male insects. This model uses a unique Beta function for representing the temperature responses of both the overwintering generation as well as the adult generations. The results indicate that LGM is able to simulate L. botrana voltinism under climatic conditions ranging from those observed in Southern Spain to those recorded in the Alsace region (France). The LGM only requires a single set of parameters valid for all the generations with a precision of around 7 days (RMSE), allowing a simple use with parameters representative of natural behaviour and found in the existing literature.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Licence : CC BY NC - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale
Licence : CC BY NC - Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale