Valuing an investment project using no-arbitrage and the alpha-maxmin criteria: From Knightian uncertainty to risk

Yann Braouezec (1) , Robert Joliet (1)

1 LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221

We consider a two-period irreversible investment decision problem in which the firm can either invest in period 0 or in period 1. The firm is assumed to be able to specify a set of three scenarios or more but not a probability measure. Assuming the option to wait is valued with the no-arbitrage principle, when the firm makes use of the criteria α-maxmin, we show the firm ends up with a known probability measure that assigns a positive probability to three or four scenarios only.

Mots clés: Knightian uncertainty; Investment decision; Option to wait; No-arbitrage; α -maxmin

Domaines: Sciences de l'Homme et Société; Economies et finances

Yann Braouezec, Robert Joliet. Valuing an investment project using no-arbitrage and the alpha-maxmin criteria: From Knightian uncertainty to risk. Economics Letters, 2019, 178, pp.111-115. ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2019.03.007⟩. ⟨hal-02504260⟩