Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa

Guillaume Constantin de Magny (1) , Jean-François Guégan (1) , Michel Petit (2) , Bernard Cazelles (3, 4)

1 GEMI - Génétique et évolution des maladies infectieuses
2 IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
3 Laboratoire Ecologie et évolution
4 GEODES - Modélisation mathématique et informatique de systèmes complexes naturels, biologiques ou sociaux

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. METHODS: We used wavelet analyses and derived methods because these are useful mathematical tools to provide information on the evolution of the periodic component over time and allow quantification of non-stationary associations between time series. RESULTS: The temporal variability of cholera incidence exhibits an interannual component, and a significant synchrony in cholera epidemics is highlighted at the end of the 1980's. This observed synchrony across countries, even if transient through time, is also coherent with both the local variability of rainfall and the global climate variability quantified by the Indian Oscillation Index. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that large and regional scale climate variability influence both the temporal dynamics and the spatial synchrony of cholera epidemics in human populations in the Gulf of Guinea, as has been described for two other tropical regions of the world, western South America and Bangladesh.

Domaines: Santé publique et épidémiologie

Guillaume Constantin de Magny, Jean-François Guégan, Michel Petit, Bernard Cazelles. Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2007, 7, pp.20. ⟨10.1186/1471-2334-7-20⟩. ⟨hal-02392652⟩