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PARIS SPORTIFS AU FOOTBALL : L'INTERET DES EXPECTED GOALS

Abstract : To determine soccer results odds, estimate outcomes probabilities 1/N/2 is fundamental. Many statistical models used utilize the real result. In this paper, we propose to use "expected outcomes" constructed from the expected goals (xG). With the ordered polytomics model, we compare, on several years of Ligue 1, the results obtained using real or expected outcomes.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02150047
Contributor : Léo Gerville-Réache <>
Submitted on : Thursday, June 6, 2019 - 11:01:29 PM
Last modification on : Sunday, April 5, 2020 - 5:08:01 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02150047, version 1

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Paul Steffen, Léo Gerville-Réache, Nicolas Bisoffi. PARIS SPORTIFS AU FOOTBALL : L'INTERET DES EXPECTED GOALS. JDS 2019, Jun 2019, Nancy, France. ⟨hal-02150047⟩

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