A Proposal for a Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Arnason-Schwarz Multisite Capture-Recapture Model

Roger Pradel (1) , Claire M A Wintrebert , Olivier Gimenez (1)

1 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive

In an analysis of capture-recapture data, the identification of a model that fits is a critical step. For the multisite (also called multistate) models used to analyze data gathered at several sites, no reliable test for assessing fit is currently available. We propose a test for the JMV model, a simple generalization of the Arnason-Schwarz (AS) model, in the form of interpretable contingency tables. For the AS model, we suggest complementing the test for the JMV model with a likelihood ratio test of AS vs. JMV. The examination of an example leads us to propose further a partitioning that emphasizes the role of the memory model of Brownie et al. (1993 Biometrics 49, 1173-1187) as a biologically more plausible alternative to the AS model.

Mots clés: Canada goose; Cormack-Jolly-Seber; Memory model; Mixture of multinomials; Multistate models; Peeling-pooling; Test3G; TestM; TestWBWA; Unisite models

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Roger Pradel, Claire M A Wintrebert, Olivier Gimenez. A Proposal for a Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Arnason-Schwarz Multisite Capture-Recapture Model. Biometrics, 2003, 59 (1), pp.43 - 53. ⟨10.1111/1541-0420.00006⟩. ⟨hal-02126383⟩