Changes in French weather pattern seasonal frequencies projected by a CMIP5 ensemble

Pierre Brigode (1) , M. Gérardin (2) , P. Bernardara (3) , J. Gailhard (4) , P. Ribstein (2)

1 GEOAZUR 7329 - Géoazur
2 METIS - Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols
3 EDF R&D - EDF R&D
4 EDF DTG DMM

Over the last decades, General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have been regularly evaluated in terms of their ability to reproduce the historical frequency of significantly recurrent Weather Patterns (WP) observed at the regional scale. Thus, a good simulation of the frequency of these particular WP by the GCM is generally conditioning the good representation of the regional statistics of surface variables such as temperature and precipitation. In this paper, the seasonal frequency of eight particular WP have been calculated using the daily geopotential height fields simulated by an ensemble of 26 CMIP5 GCM. These WP are known as significantly influencing the French regional hydro-climatology in terms of both frequency of low flows and high precipitation events. Four different bias correction methods have been applied on the simulated geopotential height fields before the calculation of the seasonal WP frequencies. The GCM ensemble showed overall good performances in terms of the simulation of WP seasonal frequencies. The application of a spatially and temporally nonhomogenous correction of simulated geopotential height fields improved significantly the simulation of WP frequencies for the four seasons. Finally, the evolution of the WP frequencies over the next century has been quantified. Three WP (WP2, WP4 and WP8) have pronounced seasonal changes, with WP2 and WP4 being less frequent in summer and autumn seasons, respectively, while WP8 being more frequent over spring, summer and autumn seasons. The strong simulated frequency evolution of WP2 and WP8 is an interesting result, which predicts the climate to be drier with time for France. Thus, WP2 (western oceanic circulation), grouping rainy days over the northern France region, is simulated as less frequent in future summers, while WP8 (Anticyclonic situations), which groups non-rainy days over France, is simulated as more frequent in future summers.

Mots clés: Weather pattern frequency; future weather pattern frequency; CMIP5; French climatology.

Domaines: Météorologie; Hydrologie; Milieux et Changements globaux

Pierre Brigode, M. Gérardin, P. Bernardara, J. Gailhard, P. Ribstein. Changes in French weather pattern seasonal frequencies projected by a CMIP5 ensemble. International Journal of Climatology, 2018, ⟨10.1002/joc.5549⟩. ⟨hal-01773657⟩