Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract : Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)-the amount of carbon dioxide that is 'fixed' into organic material through the photosynthesis of land plants-may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. As a consequence, modelling estimates of terrestrial carbon storage, and of feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate, remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century that is based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records, derived from ice-core, firn and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration according to changes in its sources and sinks-including a large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the observation-based COS record is most consistent with simulations of climate and the carbon cycle that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5% growth; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Although this COS analysis does not directly constrain models of future GPP growth, it does provide a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon-cycle simulations.
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J. E. Campbell, J. A. Berry, U. Seibt, S. J. Smith, S. A. Montzka, et al.. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production. Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 544 (7648), pp.84-87. ⟨10.1038/nature22030⟩. ⟨hal-01606012⟩



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