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Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

Abstract : The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.
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Joel Guiot, Wolfgang Cramer. Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems. Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2016, 354 (6311), pp.465-468. ⟨10.1126/science.aah5015⟩. ⟨hal-01586010⟩



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