Calibration of a SEIR epidemic model to describe Zika virus outbreak in Brazil

Eber Dantas (1) , Michel Tosin (1) , Americo Cunha Jr (1)

1 UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Rio de Janeiro State University [Brazil] = Université d'État de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]

In the last two decades multiple instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world, turning the related disease into a international concern. In this context, the use of mathematical models for epidemics is of great importance, since they are useful tools to predict the outbreaks underlying numbers, and allow one to test the effectiveness of different strategies to combat associated diseases. This work deals with the development and calibration of a epidemic model to describe the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil. A mathematical model with 8 differential equations and 7 parameters is employed. Nominal values for the model parameters are estimated from the literature. An inverse problem associated to the model identification is formulated and solved. The calibrated model obtained presents realistic parameters and returns reasonable predictions, with the curve shape similar to the outbreak evolution, and peak value close to the maximum number of infected people during 2016.

Mots clés: Zika virus dynamics; nonlinear dynamics; mathematical biology; SEIR epidemic model; model calibration; system identification

Domaines: Science non linéaire [physics]; Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]; Bio-Informatique, Biologie Systémique [q-bio.QM]; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Statistiques [math.ST]

Eber Dantas, Michel Tosin, Americo Cunha Jr. Calibration of a SEIR epidemic model to describe Zika virus outbreak in Brazil. 2017. ⟨hal-01456776v2⟩