Modelling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics

Abstract : The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding p-values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive p-value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavour physics.
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Article dans une revue
European Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields, Springer Verlag (Germany), 2017, pp.214. <http://link.springer.com/article/10.1140%2Fepjc%2Fs10052-017-4767-z>. <10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-4767-z>
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01400814
Contributeur : Jérôme Charles <>
Soumis le : mardi 22 novembre 2016 - 15:04:03
Dernière modification le : mardi 11 avril 2017 - 01:09:59

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Jérôme Charles, Sebastien Descotes-Genon, Valentin Niess, Luiz Vale Silva. Modelling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics. European Physical Journal C: Particles and Fields, Springer Verlag (Germany), 2017, pp.214. <http://link.springer.com/article/10.1140%2Fepjc%2Fs10052-017-4767-z>. <10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-4767-z>. <hal-01400814>

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