Foresight on land use evolution using a coherent set of possible future land use change scenarios
Résumé
Changes in agricultural land use play a role in erosion and runoff evideneet in Upper Normandy, France Foresight methodology is a means to shape this role.We applied the SYSPAHMM (SYSTEM, Processus, Clusters of Hypotheses,Micro-scenarios) foresight methodology, at the local scale (Seine-Maritime), France and involving diverse actors in agriculture. Ites a three-step methodology with a 2015 time horizon. First, the system is graphically represented to describe its current functioning. Secondly, a set of hypotheses of future evolution is elaborated involving all factors potentially influencing land use. Thirdly,relation ships between the hypotheses are analysed to provide a coherent set of possible futures. A group of hypotheses leads to scenarios, a tool to evaluate the potential environmental consequences of agricultural land use changes.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]
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