Spatial Point Pattern Analysis of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena in France

Thibault Laurent (1) , Christine Thomas-Agnan (1) , Michaël Vaillant (2)

1 GREMAQ - Groupe de recherche en économie mathématique et quantitative
2 Meta-Connexions

We model the unidentified aerial phenomena observed in France during the last 60 years as a spatial point pattern. We use some public information such as population density, rate of moisture or presence of airports to model the intensity of the unidentified aerial phenomena. Spatial exploratory data analysis is a first approach to appreciate the link between the intensity of the unidentified aerial phenomena and the covariates. We then fit an inhomogeneous spatial Poisson process model with covariates. We find that the significant variables are the population density, the presence of the factories with a nuclear risk and contaminated land, and the rate of moisture. The analysis of the residuals shows that some parts of France (the Belgian border, the tip of Britany, some parts in the SouthEast , the Picardie and Haute-Normandie regions, the Loiret and Corr eze departments) present a high value of local intensity which are not explained by our model.

Mots clés: Unidentified aerial phenomena in France; Inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes with covariates; Kernel smoothed intensity; Spatial point pattern analysis

Domaines: Applications [stat.AP]; Statistiques [math.ST]; Etudes de l'environnement

Thibault Laurent, Christine Thomas-Agnan, Michaël Vaillant. Spatial Point Pattern Analysis of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena in France. 2015. ⟨hal-01187046⟩