Mapping Rift Valley fever and malaria risk over West Africa using climatic indicators

Cyril Caminade , Jacques-André Ndione (1) , C.-M.-F. Kebe (2) , A.E Jones , S. Danuor , S. Tay , Y. M. Tourre (3) , Jean-Pierre Lacaux (4) , C. Vignolles (5) , J.B. Duchemin , I. Jeanne , P. Morse

1 CSE - Centre de Suivi Ecologique [Dakar]
2 UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]
3 DIRSE - Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est
4 LAERO - Laboratoire d'aérologie
5 CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse]

The aim of this study is to highlight the recent progress in mapping vector-borne diseases in West Africa using modelling and field experiments. Based on climatic indicators, methods have been developed to map Rift Valley fever (RVF) and malaria risk. Modelling results corroborate that northern Senegal and southern Mauritania appear to be critical areas for RVF outbreaks and that the malaria epidemic fringe is located at the northern edge of the Sahel. Future projections highlight that the malaria risk decreases over northern Sahel. This is related to a southward shift of the potential epidemic belt in autumn.

Mots clés: vector-borne diseases; malaria; Rift Valley fever; disease modelling; climate change; West Africa

Domaines: Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]

Cyril Caminade, Jacques-André Ndione, C.-M.-F. Kebe, A.E Jones, S. Danuor, et al.. Mapping Rift Valley fever and malaria risk over West Africa using climatic indicators. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2011, 12 (1), pp.96-103. ⟨10.1002/asl.296⟩. ⟨hal-00996099⟩