Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

Benoît Cheze (1, 2) , Pascal Gastineau (3) , Julien Chevallier (4, 2)

1 IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles
2 EconomiX - EconomiX
3 IFSTTAR/LTE - Laboratoire Transport et Environnement
4 LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

Mots clés: ECONOMIE D'ENERGIE; AVION; CARBURANT; CONSOMMATION DE CARBURANT

Domaines: Environnement et Société; Economies et finances

Benoît Cheze, Pascal Gastineau, Julien Chevallier. Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025). Energy Policy, 2011, 39 (9), pp. 5147-5158. ⟨10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.049⟩. ⟨hal-00990189⟩