Extratropical forcing of ENSO

Ghyslaine Boschat (1, 2) , Pascal Terray (2) , Sébastien Masson (1)

1 LOCEAN - Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques
2 VARCLIM - Variabilité climatique tropicale et globale

We present evidence that sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Oceans during late boreal winter offer another important source of predictability for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This new SST predictor may provide accurate prediction of the amplitude of ENSO events before their onset, for both El Niño and La Niña events which occurred during recent decades.

Mots clés: El Nino Southern Oscillation; ENSO predictability; singular value decomposition

Domaines: Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]

Ghyslaine Boschat, Pascal Terray, Sébastien Masson. Extratropical forcing of ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40, pp.1605-1611. ⟨10.1002/GRL.50229⟩. ⟨hal-00873386⟩