Assessing ocean-model sensitivity to wind forcing uncertainties

Abstract : In this paper, we assess the short-term forecast error of a mesoscale primitive-equation open-ocean model, induced by uncertainties in wind forcing. Statistics calculated from an ensemble of ocean states show that temperature forecast error is strongest at the top of the ensemble-mean thermocline, as a consequence of vertical displacement of the mixed-layer base around its ensemble mean. Horizontal pattern of the temperature error in the mixed-layer is mainly explained by horizontal advection and surface heat flux fluctuations. These two mechanisms and entrainment through the mixed-layer bottom are presented as the three processes responsible for thermal forecast error growth in the modeled upper ocean.
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Isabel Andreu-Burillo, Guy Caniaux, Michel Gavart, Pierre de Mey, Rémy Baraille. Assessing ocean-model sensitivity to wind forcing uncertainties. Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2002, 29, pp.5.1-5.4. ⟨10.1029/2001GL014473⟩. ⟨hal-00764350⟩

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