Application of Evidential Networks in quantitative analysis of railway accidents

Felipe Aguirre (1) , Mohamed Sallak (1) , Walter Schon (1) , Fabien Belmonte (1)

1 Heudiasyc - Heuristique et Diagnostic des Systèmes Complexes [Compiègne]

Currently, a high percentage of accidents in railway systems are accounted to human factors. As a consequence, safety engineers try to take into account this factor in risk assessment. However, human reliability data are very difficult to quantify, thus, qualitative methods are often used in railway system's risk assessments. Modeling of human errors through probabilistic approaches has shown some limitation concerning the quantification of qualitative aspects of human factors. The proposed paper presents an original method to account for the human factor by using Evidential Networks and fault tree analysis.

Mots clés: epistemic uncertainty; Evidential Networks; Experts' opinion; Railway accidents; Belief functions theory; Experts' opinion.

Domaines: Automatique / Robotique

Felipe Aguirre, Mohamed Sallak, Walter Schon, Fabien Belmonte. Application of Evidential Networks in quantitative analysis of railway accidents. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2013, 227 (4), pp.368-384. ⟨10.1177/1748006X12475044⟩. ⟨hal-00749617⟩