The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Andrew J. Charlton-Perez (1) , E. Hawkins (1) , V. Eyring (2) , I. Cionni (2) , G. E. Bodeker (3) , D. E. Kinnison (4) , H. Akiyoshi (5) , S. M. Frith (6) , R. Garcia (4) , A. Gettelman (4) , J. F. Lamarque (4) , T. Nakamura (5) , S. Pawson (7) , Y. Yamashita (5) , Slimane Bekki (8) , P. Braesicke (9) , M. P. Chipperfield (10) , S. Dhomse (10) , Marion Marchand (8) , E. Mancini (11) , O. Morgenstern (12) , G. Pitari (11) , D. Plummer (13) , J. A. Pyle (9) , E. Rozanov (14, 15) , J. Scinocca (13) , K. Shibata (16) , T. G. Shepherd (17) , W. Tian (10) , D. W. Waugh (18)

1 Department of Meteorology [Reading]
2 IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre = DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics
3 Bodeker Scientific
4 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
5 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
6 SSAI - Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Lanham]
7 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
8 STRATO - LATMOS
9 Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK]
10 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
11 UNIVAQ - University of L'Aquila [Italy]
12 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder]
13 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
14 PMOD/WRC - Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center
15 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
16 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
17 Department of Physics [Toronto]
18 Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Baltimore]

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Domaines: Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique [physics.ao-ph]

Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, E. Hawkins, V. Eyring, I. Cionni, G. E. Bodeker, et al.. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010, 10 (19), pp.9473-9486. ⟨10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010⟩. ⟨hal-00482182⟩