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Modelling long-run scenarios in a second-best world : application to climate policies

Renaud Crassous 
Abstract : This PhD thesis adresses the issue of the necessary transition toward a sustainable energy system and a stabilized climate regime. It starts from the observation of a persistent gap between lessons from both the theoretical economic literature and the quantitative assessments of climate policies and observed decision mechanisms in the real world. In order to understand this gap, the state of the art of existing technical and economic modelling tools in the field of energy and climate is critically analyzed, which leads to a new set of specifications for a new model able to solve the misunderstandings about climate policy. This is applied to the development of the innovative world model Imaclim-R, which includes several suboptimal rules of decision and market behaviours, in order to be more closely representative of our second best world. Numerical simulations lead to show the impact of those suboptimalities on climate policies, especially on the carbon value profile and on the risks of high transition costs on any greenhouse gases stabilization pathway. Eventually, some policy tools are proposed and assessed to secure the transition, on both the environmental and the economic sides, sketching a new research agenda for policy assessment.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, April 7, 2009 - 8:00:00 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 19, 2022 - 10:12:42 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 9:07:01 PM


  • HAL Id : pastel-00004809, version 1



Renaud Crassous. Modelling long-run scenarios in a second-best world : application to climate policies. Humanities and Social Sciences. AgroParisTech, 2008. English. ⟨NNT : 2008AGPT0073⟩. ⟨pastel-00004809⟩



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