How Valid are the Reported Cases of People Infected with Covid-19 in the World?

Raul Isea (1)

1 IDEA - Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados

The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.

Mots clés: Coronavirus; 2019-nCoV; Covid-19; Benford; Lay; Forensic; data

Domaines: Informatique [cs]; Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Raul Isea. How Valid are the Reported Cases of People Infected with Covid-19 in the World?. International Journal of Coronaviruses, 2020, 1, pp.53 - 56. ⟨10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3376⟩. ⟨hal-03519476⟩