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Inferência dos Estágios Iniciais da COVID-19 em Portugal

Abstract : Currently, the new SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus is a threat to the world population health. The apparent rapid spread of the virus has created a pandemic, and countries around the world are struggling with an increase in infected cases. In this sense, this article is part of that effort to try to better understand the initial dynamics of COVID-19 in Portugal, seeking estimate a probable date for the epidemic outbreak beginning. Using the information provided by the health authorities and using the classic logistic model, a model for the initial stages of the disease in the country is presented with the notion of its respective uncertainty. This model allows to infer an interval for the occurrence of the first case of COVID-19 in Portugal that is prior to the official notification.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02975810
Contributor : Americo CUNHA JR Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, November 4, 2020 - 2:10:12 AM
Last modification on : Saturday, November 7, 2020 - 3:02:23 AM

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Fernando C Batista, Americo Cunha Jr. Inferência dos Estágios Iniciais da COVID-19 em Portugal. XXIII Congresso Brasileiro de Automática (CBA 2020), Nov 2020, Congresso Virtual, Brazil. ⟨hal-02975810v2⟩

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