Foresight in mission-oriented research: the SYSPAHMM foresight method (SYStem, Processes, Clusters of Hypotheses, Micro- and Macroscenarios)
Résumé
Between 1993 and 2003, foresight activities gradually became an integral part of INRA's operation and a specific methodology was forged: the SYSPAHMM1 foresight method. The authors describe the different stages of the method. It begins with a static graphic description of the system that will then be made dynamic through the identification of processes and quantified by state variables. This phase is of utmost importance since it provides the foundation for everything that follows. The most important processes are then transformed into hypotheses that either come to be or do not, one of the central points of the approach, before establishing a matrix of the influences of each hypothesis on the others. Breaking down these hypotheses into clusters of hypotheses that are more closely related among themselves than to the others allows us to build microscenarios. The idea of a scenario is discussed. The possibility of global scenarios and macroscenarios is explained. The presentation concludes with a discussion of research and action strategies. The conclusion focuses on the advantages of foresight studies for organizations, whether they are research oriented or not.