Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools

Hanno Seebens (1, 2) , Tim M. Blackburn (3, 4, 5) , Ellie E. Dyer (3, 4) , Piero Genovesi (6, 7) , Philip E. Hulme (8, 9) , Jonathan M. Jeschke (10, 11, 12) , Shyama Pagad (13, 7) , Petr M. N. Pysek (14, 15) , Mark van Kleunen (16, 17) , Marten Winter (18) , Michael Ansong (19) , Margarita Arianoutsou (20) , Sven Bacher (21) , Bernd Blasius (22) , Eckehard G. Brockerhoff (23, 24) , Giuseppe Brundu (25) , Cesar Capinha (26, 27, 28) , Charlotte E. Causton (29) , Laura Celesti-Grapow (30) , Wayne Dawson (31) , Stefan Dullinger (2) , Evan P. Economo (32) , Nicol Fuentes (33) , Benoît Guénard (34) , Heinke Jäger (29) , John Kartesz (35) , Marc Kenis (36) , Ingolf Kuehn (18, 37, 38) , Bernd Lenzner (2) , Andrew M. Liebhold (39) , Alexander Mosena (40) , Dietmar Moser (2) , Wolfgang Nentwig (41) , Misako Nishino (35) , David Pearman (42) , Jan Pergl (42) , Wolfgang Rabitsch (43) , Julissa Rojas-Sandoval (44) , Alain Roques (45) , Stephanie Rorke (46) , Silvia Rossinelli (21) , Helen E. Roy (46) , Riccardo Scalera (7) , Stefan Schindler (2) , Katerina Stajerova (14, 15) , Barbara Tokarska-Guzik (47) , Kevin Walker (42) , Darren F. Ward (48, 49) , Takehiko Yamanaka (50) , Franz Essl (2, 5)

1 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
2 University of Vienna [Vienna]
3 Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment, Research
4 Institute of Zoology
5 Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology
6 ISPRA - National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
7 International Union for Conservation of Nature
8 Bio-Protection Research Centre
9 Bio-Protection Research Centre
10 Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Biology and Inland Fisheries
11 Freie Universität Berlin
12 BBIB - Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research
13 University of Auckland [Auckland]
14 Institute of Botany, Department of Invasion Ecology
15 Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science
16 University of Konstanz
17 Taizhou University
18 Halle Jena Leipzig
19 KNUST - Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology
20 Department of Ecology and Systematics, Faculty of Biology
21 Department of Biology
22 ICBM - Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment
23 New Zealand Forest Research Institute
24 New Zealand Forest Research Institute
25 Department of Agriculture
26 Universidade do Porto = University of Porto
27 NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon
28 GHTM - Global Health and Tropical Medicine
29 Charles Darwin Foundation
30 UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
31 School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences
32 OIST - Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University
33 Universidad de Concepción - University of Concepcion [Chile]
34 University of Hong Kong
35 BONAP - Biota of North America Program
36 CABI Europe Switzerland
37 Department of Community Ecology
38 Department of Geobotany and Botanical Garden
39 Northern Research Station
40 Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University
41 Institute of Ecology and Evolution
42 BSBI - Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland
43 Umweltbundesamt GmbH = Environment Agency Austria
44 NMNH - Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History
45 URZF - Unité de recherche Zoologie Forestière
46 NERC - Natural Environment Research Council
47 University of Silesia
48 School of Biological Sciences
49 Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research [Lincoln]
50 Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: Onequarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Mots clés: source species pools; invasive species; time series; globalization

Mots clés: drivers

Domaines: Milieux et Changements globaux

Hanno Seebens, Tim M. Blackburn, Ellie E. Dyer, Piero Genovesi, Philip E. Hulme, et al.. Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018, 115 (10), pp.E2264 - E2273. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1719429115⟩. ⟨hal-02629243⟩