Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico

Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco (1) , J.F. Bustamante-Castañeda (1) , Jean-Guy Caputo (2) , M.E. Jiménez-Corona (3, 1) , S. Ponce-De-León (1)

1 UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico
2 LMI - Laboratoire de Mathématiques de l'INSA de Rouen Normandie
3 Instituto Nacional de Cardiologia Ignacio Chavez

On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph. The main purpose is to give estimates of the arrival virus and times of the outbreak to other locations. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is around March 20, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be taken As an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. Last, we show that these estimates are robust to small variations of epidemiological parameters.

Mots clés: SARS-CoV-2; outbreak; coronavirus; COVID-19

Domaines: Santé publique et épidémiologie; Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]

Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco, J.F. Bustamante-Castañeda, Jean-Guy Caputo, M.E. Jiménez-Corona, S. Ponce-De-León. Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico. 2020. ⟨hal-02507142⟩