Theoretical assessment of the impact of climatic factors in a vibrio cholerae model

Gabriel Kolaye (1, 2) , Irépran Damakoa (2) , Samuel Bowong (3, 4, 5) , Raymond Houé Ngouna (1, 6) , David Békollè (2)

1 IUCSJD - Institut Universitaire Catholique Saint-Jérôme de Douala
2 UN - Université de Ngaoundéré/University of Ngaoundéré [Cameroun]
3 Dpt of Mathematics and Computer Science [Douala]
4 UMMISCO - Unité de modélisation mathématique et informatique des systèmes complexes [Bondy]
5 UY1 - Université de Yaoundé I
6 LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production

A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilib-ria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable prod-ucts against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.

Mots clés: Mathematical model; V. Cholerae; Climatic factors; Cooperative systems; Stability

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation; Maladies infectieuses

Gabriel Kolaye, Irépran Damakoa, Samuel Bowong, Raymond Houé Ngouna, David Békollè. Theoretical assessment of the impact of climatic factors in a vibrio cholerae model. Acta Biotheoretica, 2018, pp.0. ⟨10.1007/s10441-018-9322-2⟩. ⟨hal-01905420⟩