Global Research Alliance on agricultural greenhouse gases - benchmark and ensemble crop and grassland model estimates

Renata Sándor (1) , F. Ehrhardt , Bruno Basso (2) , A. Bathia , Gianni Bellocchi (3) , L. Brilli (4) , Laura Maritza Cardenas (5) , Massimiliano de Antoni Migliorati (6) , J.D. Bregon , C. Dorich , Lucas Doro (7) , N. Fitton (8) , S. Giacomini (9) , Peter Grace (6) , Brian B Grant (10) , M. Harrison (11) , Stephanie Jones (12) , Miko Kirschbaum (13) , Katja Klumpp (3) , P. Laville , Joël Léonard (14) , M. Liebig (15) , M. Lieffering , Raphaël Martin (3) , R. Mcauliffe , Elizabeth Anne Meier (16) , Lutz Merbold (17) , Andrew Moore (18) , Vasilis Myrgiotis (19) , Elizabeth Pattey (20) , Q. Zhang , Sylvie Recous (21) , Suzanne Rolinski (22) , Joanna Sharp (23) , Raia Silvia Massad , P. Smith , Ward Smith (20) , Val Snow (24) , J.F. Soussana

1 ATK TAKI - Institute for Soil Sciences and Agricultural Chemistry
2 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing]
3 UREP - Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial
4 Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Agroalimentari e dell'Ambiente (DISPAA)
5 Department of Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems
6 Institute for Future Environments
7 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
8 Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences
9 UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria = Federal University of Santa Maria [Santa Maria, RS, Brazil]
10 Science and Technology Branch
11 TIA - Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
12 Soil Science and Systems Team
13 Ecosystems and Global Change Team
14 AgroImpact - Agroressources et Impacts environnementaux
15 USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service
16 CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences
17 Livestock Systems and Environment
18 Agriculture & Food
19 School of GeoSciences
20 Ottawa Research and Development Centre
21 FARE - Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement
22 Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
23 Modelling, Sustainable Production
24 Farm Systems and Environment

Uncertainties in the response of crop and grassland models to management and environmental drivers can be attributed to differences in the structure of different models. This has created an urgent need for international benchmarking of models, where uncertainties are estimated by running several models that simulate the same physical and management conditions (ensemble modelling) to generate expanded envelopes of uncertainty (e.g. Asseng et al., 2013). Simulations of the agricultural C and N fluxes, in particular, are inherently uncertain because they are driven by complex interactions (e.g. Sándor et al., 2016) and characterized by considerable spatial and temporal variability in the measurements. In this context, the Integrative Research Group of the Global Research Alliance (GRA) on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases promotes a coordinated activity across multiple international projects (e.g. C-N MIP and Models4Pastures of the FACCE-JPI, https://www.faccejpi.com) to benchmark and compare simulation models that estimate C-N related outputs (including greenhouse gas emissions) from arable crop and grassland systems (http://globalresearchalliance.org/e/model-intercomparison-on-agricultural-ghg-emissions). This study presents some preliminary results on the uncertainty of outputs from 12 grassland models while exploring model differences when models were calibrated with increasing data resources.

Mots clés: agricultural greenhouse gases; grassland model

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Renata Sándor, F. Ehrhardt, Bruno Basso, A. Bathia, Gianni Bellocchi, et al.. Global Research Alliance on agricultural greenhouse gases - benchmark and ensemble crop and grassland model estimates. MACSUR Conference "Modelling Grassland-Livestock Systems under Climate Change", Jun 2016, Potsdam, Germany. ⟨hal-01602914⟩