Agrimonde and agrimonde-terra: foresight approaches compared

Marie Gasquet (1) , Sebastien Treyer (2)

1 UPR BSEF - Biens et services des écosystèmes forestiers tropicaux : l'enjeu du changement global
2 Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI)

Over a ten-year period, two French agricultural research organisations have jointly undertaken two foresight exercises. Agrimonde was about scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050, while Agrimonde-Terra was about land use and food security in 2050. This article compares and contrasts these two exercises, in terms of context and objectives, method, scenarios, and how they grapple with global regions. The comparison illustrates how the context, the objectives and the desired changes influenced the choice of foresight methodology, and the results. While Agrimonde is focused on shifting the forefront of the debate on agricultural models for global food security, decision-makers at various geographical levels can seize the Agrimonde-Terra method and results to have discussions about the future uses of their land.

Mots clés: policymaking; scenario; method; global; regional

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Marie Gasquet, Sebastien Treyer. Agrimonde and agrimonde-terra: foresight approaches compared. IDS Bulletin, 2016, 47 (4), pp.37-53. ⟨10.19088/1968-2016.154⟩. ⟨hal-01601899⟩