A macroeconomic modem with structural change and disequilibrium : a study of the economic consequences of the Portuguese revolution of 1974

Manuel José Vilares (1)

1 Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestao de Informaçao

This paper presents and estimates a macroeconometric rationing model, using Portuguese data for the. period 1955-1979. Contrary to similar models found in the literature, the theoretical approach adopted in this study does not require the assumption of fully discrete regime nor that of a continuous framework. Instead, an intermediate specification is proposed which conserves the presence of regimes but involves no discrete jumps from one regime to another. The presence of the min operator and the specification of a ”clay-clay" production function raises a number, of estimation problems. These are overcome by the use of some appropriate transformations and the adoption of a nonlinear two-stage least-squares procedures. The results shed some light on the performances of the Portuguese economy during the period and afford a neat interpretation of the structural changes induced by the revolution of april 25th 1974.

Mots clés: Portuguese revolution; Macroeconomic model; economic analysis

Domaines: Economies et finances

Manuel José Vilares. A macroeconomic modem with structural change and disequilibrium : a study of the economic consequences of the Portuguese revolution of 1974. [Research Report] Institut de mathématiques économiques (IME). 1982, 80 p., graphiques, tableaux, bibliographie. ⟨hal-01542479⟩