The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

Ervin Rasztovits (1) , Imre Berki (1) , Csaba Mátyás (1) , Kornél Czimber (2) , Elisabeth Pötzelsberger (3) , Norbert Móricz (4)

1 NRRC - Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences [Sopron]
2 Institute of Geomatics and Civil Engineering, University of West Hungary
3 Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna
4 Energy Department, Austrian Institute of Technology

& Context Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably con-tribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits. & Methods The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs). & Results Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century. & Conclusion These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future.

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Ervin Rasztovits, Imre Berki, Csaba Mátyás, Kornél Czimber, Elisabeth Pötzelsberger, et al.. The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit. Annals of Forest Science, 2014, 71 (2), pp.201 - 210. ⟨10.1007/s13595-013-0346-0⟩. ⟨hal-01098420⟩