Modeling earthquake dynamics

Abstract : In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons & Geist (2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are consider, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos & Karlis (2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are function of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year, or a decade.
Type de document :
[Research Report] uqam. 2015
Contributeur : Arthur Charpentier <>
Soumis le : mercredi 25 février 2015 - 23:54:24
Dernière modification le : vendredi 16 septembre 2016 - 15:06:59
Document(s) archivé(s) le : mardi 26 mai 2015 - 11:27:06


quakes-rev-2 (1).pdf
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  • HAL Id : hal-00871883, version 2



Arthur Charpentier, Marilou Durand. Modeling earthquake dynamics. [Research Report] uqam. 2015. <hal-00871883v2>



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