Bayesian parameter estimation of convective heat transfer coefficients of a roof-mounted radiant barrier system

Philippe Lauret (1) , Frédéric Miranville (1) , Harry Boyer (1) , François Garde (1) , Laetitia Adelard (1)

1 PIMENT - Physique et Ingénierie Mathématique pour l'Énergie, l'environnemeNt et le bâtimenT

This paper deals with the application of Bayesian methods to the estimation of two convective heat transfer coefficients of a roof-mounted radiant barrier system (RBS). As part of an empirical validation of the thermal model of the roofing complex, a parametric sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of convective coefficients in the thermal behavior of a roofing complex. A parameter estimation method is then used in order to find the values of the coefficients that lead to an improvement of the thermal model. However, instead of using a classical parameter estimation method, we used a Bayesian inference approach to parameter estimation. The aim of the paper is to introduce the basic concepts of this powerful method in this simple two-parameter case. We show that Bayesian methods introduce an explicit treatment of uncertainty in modelling and a corresponding measure of reliability for the conclusions reached.

Mots clés: Bayesian inference; radiant barriers; convective heat transfer coefficient; uncertainty; model validation

Domaines: Thermique [physics.class-ph]; Thermique [physics.class-ph]

Philippe Lauret, Frédéric Miranville, Harry Boyer, François Garde, Laetitia Adelard. Bayesian parameter estimation of convective heat transfer coefficients of a roof-mounted radiant barrier system. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Transactions of the ASME, 2006, 128 (2), pp.213-225. ⟨hal-00766246⟩