Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach

Sophie Brana (1) , Marie-Louise Djibenou (1) , Stéphanie Prat (1)

1 Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales

The overly accommodating monetary policy is often accused of creating surplus liquidity and bubbles on the asset markets. In particular, it could have contributed to strong capital inflows in emerging countries, which may have had a significant impact on financial stability in these countries, affecting domestic financing conditions and creating a risk of upward pressures on asset prices. We focus in this paper on the impact of global excess liquidity on good and asset prices for a set of emerging market countries by estimating a panel VAR model. We define first global liquidity and highlight situations of excess liquidity. We then find that excess liquidity at the global level has spillover effects on output and price level in emerging countries. The impact on real estate and commodity prices in emerging countries is less clear.

Mots clés: Global liquidity; excess liquidity indicators; crises indicators; emerging countries; financial crisis

Domaines: Economies et finances

Sophie Brana, Marie-Louise Djibenou, Stéphanie Prat. Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach. 2012. ⟨hal-00740102⟩