Spatially explicit avalanche risk assessment linking Bayesian networks to a GIS

A. Grêt-Regamey (1, 2) , D. Straub (3)

1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
2 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
3 CEE - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Berkeley]

Avalanche disasters are associated with significant monetary losses. It is thus crucial that avalanche risk assessments are based on a consistent and proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the avalanche run-out zones and the estimations of the damage potential. We link a Bayesian network (BN) to a Geographic Information System (GIS) for avalanche risk assessment in order to facilitate the explicit modelling of all relevant parameters, their causal relations and the involved uncertainties in a spatially explicit manner. The suggested procedure is illustrated for a case study area (Davos, Switzerland) located in the Swiss Alps. We discuss the potential of such a model by comparing the risks estimated using the probabilistic framework to those obtained by a traditional risk assessment procedure. The presented model may serve as a basis for developing a consistent and unified risk assessment approach.

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

A. Grêt-Regamey, D. Straub. Spatially explicit avalanche risk assessment linking Bayesian networks to a GIS. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2006, 6 (6), pp.911-926. ⟨hal-00299378⟩