Technological Forecasting and Assessment of Barriers for Emerging Technologies
Résumé
The typical ways to gather the latest information about emerging technologies is to elicit them from experts. Unfortunately, most of the existing approaches for collecting needed information produce biased outputs. Indeed, either overoptimistic or pessimistic estimates of future opportunities are produced. Both of them are undesirable, because they cause inadequate technology forecasts and management of technologies as well as misleading decision making. In order to reduce bias while gathering information, a problem mapping approach is proposed that allows to extract and organize experts' knowledge in the shape of a network of interlinked contradictions. The paper is organized the following way: First, the concept of resource limitation to define an S-curve of the technology life cycle is proposed. Several reasons behind the difficulties in assessing resource limitation are discussed. Secondly, the concept of problem mapping through a network of contradictions is introduced. The methodology of mapping technological barriers is described. Some specificities from the practice of contradiction mapping are presented and discussed. The third part studies how problem-contradiction mapping can be applied for the efficient assessment of technology barriers. These conjectures are supported by practical examples from arising energy conversion technology. Finally, some perspectives of problem-contradiction mapping are given from the viewpoints of forecasting, inventive problem solving, management of technologies, and strategic planning.
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