How Useful is the ‘cumul des mandats' for Being Re-elected? Empirical Evidence from the 1997 French Legislative Elections.
Résumé
This paper aims at estimating the impact of the cumul des mandats on the votes of incumbents in the 1997 French legislative elections. The model specifies the behavior of both the incumbent candidate and his/her direct challenger. Results show that holding a supplementary office does not increase the odds of re-election for an incumbent member of Parliament (MP), except for the offices of MP-mayor (député-maire) or more slightly MP-regional councillor (député-conseiller régional). The empirical estimates of the model do not validate a generally accepted idea that a local elected official derives a substantial increase in votes for future legislative elections. Consequently, some diminishing returns of several offices are anticipated by actors in the political market. Furthermore, many other factors affect the election outcome, such as the experience of the incumbent MP, party affiliation, the political characteristics of challenger and the nature of electoral system.