Large deviations for infectious diseases models

Peter Kratz , Etienne Pardoux (1)

1 I2M - Institut de Mathématiques de Marseille

We establish large deviation estimates for Poisson driven models of infectious disease, and apply those estimates to the time of exit from the basin of attraction of an endemic equilibrium. We apply our results to the classical SIRS model.

Domaines: Mathématiques [math]; Probabilités [math.PR]

Peter Kratz, Etienne Pardoux. Large deviations for infectious diseases models. C. Donati-Martin, A. Lejay, A. Rouault. SEMINAIRE DE PROBABILITES XLIX, 2215, Springer, pp.221 - 327, 2018, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 0075-8434. ⟨hal-01272004⟩