Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect Caused by Heat Radiation in Industrial Sites

Farid Kadri (1, 2) , Eric Chatelet (1, 2) , Guangpu Chen (1, 2)

1 LM2S - Laboratoire Modélisation et Sûreté des Systèmes
2 STMR - Sciences et Technologies pour la Maitrise des Risques

Accidents caused by the domino effect or chain of accidents are the most destructive accidents related to industrial sites. The probability of domino effects is increasingly high due to the development of industrial complexes, their proximity, and storage of dangerous substances, transportation networks and population growth. Fires are among the most frequent accidents due to the installations or storage equipment under pressure, and storage of flammable substances. The thermal radiation generated by fire is one of the main factors leading to domino effects and may cause severe consequences on industrial sites, people, structures, environment and economy. This paper presents a methodology for quantitative assessment of domino effect caused by heat radiation on storage areas, a model for the estimation of the human vulnerability is also proposed, individual and societal risk are estimated. The results have proved the importance of domino effect in quantitative risk analysis.

Mots clés: Risk assessment; Cascading events; Domino effect; Fires; Human vulnerability

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation

Farid Kadri, Eric Chatelet, Guangpu Chen. Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect Caused by Heat Radiation in Industrial Sites. 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA4), May 2011, Limassol, Cyprus. pp.1-8. ⟨hal-01054554⟩