Uncertainty Analysis of Phast's Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Two Industrial Use Cases

Nishant Pandya (1) , Nadine Gabas (1) , Eric Marsden (2)

1 LGC - Laboratoire de Génie Chimique
2 Institut pour une culture de sécurité industrielle - ICSI (FRANCE)

We have undertaken an uncertainty analysis of the dispersion model of a widely used tool for consequence assessment, comparing the level of output variability observed for an accident investigation use-case (where input variables concerning the release conditions are uncertain) and a risk prevention use-case (where the effect of uncertainty in internal model parameters is evaluated). As expected, for the two flammable and two toxic materials studied, uncertainty for the risk prevention use-case is significantly lower than that for accident investigation. We have identified the release conditions which lead to the highest level of variability in model outputs.

Mots clés: Atmospheric dispersion; Consequence modelling; Toxic materials; Sensitivity analysis; Phast software

Domaines: Génie des procédés

Nishant Pandya, Nadine Gabas, Eric Marsden. Uncertainty Analysis of Phast's Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Two Industrial Use Cases. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 2013, vol. 31, pp. 97-102. ⟨10.3303/CET1331017⟩. ⟨hal-00906361⟩